Jay Hieron vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record19-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jay Hieron carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1734
If they lose-10→ 1710
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jay HieronTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tyron Woodley69%
Jay Hieron 31%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Tyron Woodley a 69% favorite over Jay Hieron in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1720, a 54-point edge.
Jay Hieron enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jay Hieron finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.