Jay Perrin vs Mario Bautista
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record18-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'9"
67"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jay Perrin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1614
If they lose-8→ 1582
If they win+8→ 1798
If they lose-24→ 1766
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jay PerrinMario Bautista
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista92%
Jay Perrin 8%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Jay Perrin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1590, a 200-point edge.
Jay Perrin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jay Perrin finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.
Mario Bautista carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.