Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Trey Waters
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'5"
72"Reach77"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1678 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamLudus MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniTrey Waters
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and Trey Waters within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1680), separated by just 3 points.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 70%.
Trey Waters carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.