Jeferson Costa vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight CombatTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1577
If they lose-24→ 1529
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jeferson CostaJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens64%
Jeferson Costa 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 64% favorite over Jeferson Costa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jeferson Costa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1553), separated by just 0 points.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeferson Costa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.