Jeff Curran vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-18-1Record11-7-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
135 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CurranTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeff CurranMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Serra60%
Jeff Curran 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Serra a 60% favorite over Jeff Curran in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1605), separated by just 6 points.
Jeff Curran enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeff Curran finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.