Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeff Hougland vs Shota Nagano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record12-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
TBDReach-
135 lbsWeight133 lbs
Combat Sport and FitnessTeamReversal Gym Musashi Kosugi Tokoro Plus

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeff HouglandNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567
Shota NaganoNow 1582
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.86
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
49%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
48%
Strike defense
TBD
0.86
Takedown avg.
TBD
19%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.15
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jeff HouglandShota Nagano
155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
7 (70%)
Submission
6 (50%)
2 (20%)
Decision
5 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Shota Nagano70%
Jeff Hougland 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Shota Nagano a 70% favorite over Jeff Hougland in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jeff Hougland's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1583 vs 1582), separated by just 1 points.

Jeff Hougland enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Shota Nagano enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jeff Hougland finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shota Nagano 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.