Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeff Hougland vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Combat Sport and FitnessTeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

Takeya Mizugaki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jeff Hougland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeff HouglandNow 1583
If they win+17→ 1600
If they lose-15→ 1568
Takeya MizugakiNow 1608
If they win+11→ 1619
If they lose-13→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.86
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
49%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
48%
Strike defense
58%
0.86
Takedown avg.
1.46
19%
Takedown accuracy
58%
0%
Takedown defense
70%
1.15
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Jeff HouglandTakeya Mizugaki
155016001650201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
7 (70%)
Submission
1 (4%)
2 (20%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Takeya Mizugaki60%
Jeff Hougland 40%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Takeya Mizugaki a 60% favorite over Jeff Hougland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Takeya Mizugaki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1583, a 25-point edge.

Jeff Hougland enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jeff Hougland finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.