Jeff Newton vs Sam Hoger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
204 lbsWeight205 lbs
Todd Medina Freestyle TeamTeamMiletich Martial Arts
What's at stake
Sam Hoger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jeff Newton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+30→ 1572
If they lose-18→ 1524
If they win+12→ 1639
If they lose-20→ 1607
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeff NewtonSam Hoger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Hoger66%
Jeff Newton 34%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Hoger a 66% favorite over Jeff Newton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Sam Hoger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1542, a 85-point edge.
Sam Hoger enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jeff Newton finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sam Hoger 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.