Jefferson Nascimento vs Lucas Gabriel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-1-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
71"Reach74"
154 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jefferson NascimentoLucas Gabriel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jefferson Nascimento53%
Lucas Gabriel 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jefferson Nascimento a 53% favorite over Lucas Gabriel in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Gabriel's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1675), separated by just 1 points.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Jefferson Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Gabriel 55%.
Lucas Gabriel carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.