Jefferson Nascimento vs Lucas Gabriel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-1-0 Record 11-1-0
Lightweight Division Welterweight
5'7" Height 5'9"
71" Reach 74"
154 lbs Weight 170 lbs
Renovacao Fight Team Team Nova Uniao Phuket
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jefferson Nascimento Lucas Gabriel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Gabriel67%
Jefferson Nascimento33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Gabriel a 67% favorite over Jefferson Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jefferson Nascimento's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1671), separated by just 3 points.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Jefferson Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Gabriel 55%.
Lucas Gabriel carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.