Jefferson Nascimento vs Reginaldo Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-1-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
71"Reach74.5"
154 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1484 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jefferson NascimentoReginaldo Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jefferson Nascimento54%
Reginaldo Junior 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jefferson Nascimento a 54% favorite over Reginaldo Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1673), separated by just 1 points.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Reginaldo Junior enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jefferson Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Reginaldo Junior 80%.
Reginaldo Junior carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.