Jennifer Maia vs Roxanne Modafferi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-1Record25-20-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
64"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute BoxeTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Jennifer Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Roxanne Modafferi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1669
If they lose-15→ 1645
If they win+15→ 1574
If they lose-9→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jennifer MaiaRoxanne Modafferi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jennifer Maia72%
Roxanne Modafferi 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Jennifer Maia a 72% favorite over Roxanne Modafferi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Jennifer Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1660 to 1559, a 101-point edge.
Jennifer Maia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jennifer Maia finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Roxanne Modafferi 36%.
Jennifer Maia and Roxanne Modafferi share 1 common opponent: Casey O'Neill.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.