Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremiah Wells vs Matthew Semelsberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-4-1Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
74"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamClinch Academy

What's at stake

Jeremiah Wells is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew Semelsberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremiah WellsNow 1720
If they win+11→ 1731
If they lose-21→ 1699
Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1609
If they win+21→ 1630
If they lose-11→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
46%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.24
48%
Strike defense
54%
3.06
Takedown avg.
1.01
3%
Takedown accuracy
57%
50%
Takedown defense
46%
1.31
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Jeremiah WellsMatthew Semelsberger
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
5 (36%)
Submission
1 (9%)
4 (29%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremiah Wells92%
Matthew Semelsberger 8%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremiah Wells a 92% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Jeremiah Wells holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1609, a 111-point edge.

Jeremiah Wells enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jeremiah Wells finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.