Jeremiah Wells vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-4-1Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
74"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Jeremiah Wells is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew Semelsberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1730
If they lose-21→ 1698
If they win+21→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jeremiah WellsMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremiah Wells61%
Matthew Semelsberger 39%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremiah Wells a 61% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Jeremiah Wells holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1596, a 123-point edge.
Jeremiah Wells enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jeremiah Wells finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.