Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremiah Wells vs Warlley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-4-1Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'11"
74"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamRizzo RVT

What's at stake

Jeremiah Wells is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremiah WellsNow 1720
If they win+12→ 1732
If they lose-20→ 1700
Warlley AlvesNow 1626
If they win+20→ 1646
If they lose-12→ 1614

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.95
48%
Strike defense
51%
3.06
Takedown avg.
1.22
3%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
63%
1.31
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Jeremiah WellsWarlley Alves
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
5 (36%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (29%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremiah Wells92%
Warlley Alves 8%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremiah Wells a 92% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Jeremiah Wells holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1626, a 94-point edge.

Jeremiah Wells enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jeremiah Wells finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.

Jeremiah Wells carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.