Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremiah Wells vs Warlley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-1Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'11"
74"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Renzo Gracie PhillyTeamRizzo RVT

What's at stake

Jeremiah Wells is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremiah WellsNow 1688
If they win+13→ 1701
If they lose-19→ 1669
Warlley AlvesNow 1625
If they win+19→ 1644
If they lose-13→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.95
48%
Strike defense
51%
3.06
Takedown avg.
1.22
3%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
63%
1.31
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Jeremiah WellsWarlley Alves
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
4 (31%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (31%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremiah Wells72%
Warlley Alves 28%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremiah Wells a 72% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Jeremiah Wells holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1688 to 1625, a 63-point edge.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jeremiah Wells finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.

Jeremiah Wells carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.