Jeremy Freitag vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-10-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Capital City Fighting AllianceTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Freitag carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1468
If they lose-15→ 1436
If they win+23→ 1494
If they lose-25→ 1446
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy FreitagMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke70%
Jeremy Freitag 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over Jeremy Freitag in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1451, a 20-point edge.
Jeremy Freitag enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Freitag finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.