Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Kimball vs Luke Fernandez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record6-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
41,0"Reach76"
213 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Wildman Vale TudoTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy KimballNow 1614
If they win+12→ 1626
If they lose-12→ 1602
Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.81
Sig. strikes / min
32
47%
Strike accuracy
100%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0
49%
Strike defense
100%
1.41
Takedown avg.
0
20%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremy KimballLuke Fernandez
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (74%)
KO/TKO
5 (83%)
1 (5%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (21%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez70%
Jeremy Kimball 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 70% favorite over Jeremy Kimball in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jeremy Kimball's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1612), separated by just 2 points.

Jeremy Kimball finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.