Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Kimball vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
41,0"Reach75"
213 lbsWeight262 lbs
Team Wildman Vale TudoTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Kimball carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremy KimballNow 1614
If they win+14→ 1628
If they lose-10→ 1604
Marcos Rogerio de LimaNow 1672
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-19→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.70
47%
Strike accuracy
58%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
49%
Strike defense
52%
1.41
Takedown avg.
1.40
20%
Takedown accuracy
46%
50%
Takedown defense
59%
0
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Jeremy KimballMarcos Rogerio de Lima
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

14 (74%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (14%)
4 (21%)
Decision
4 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Rogerio de Lima68%
Jeremy Kimball 32%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Rogerio de Lima a 68% favorite over Jeremy Kimball in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Marcos Rogerio de Lima holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1614, a 58-point edge.

Jeremy Kimball finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.