Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Kimball vs Raffael Cerqueira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
41,0"Reach76"
213 lbsWeight205 lbs

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy KimballNow 1624
If they win+12→ 1636
If they lose-12→ 1612
Raffael CerqueiraNow 1629
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1556 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.81
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
47%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.88
49%
Strike defense
37%
1.41
Takedown avg.
0
20%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
50%
Takedown defense
40%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremy KimballRaffael Cerqueira
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (74%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
1 (5%)
Submission
2 (18%)
4 (21%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Raffael Cerqueira54%
Jeremy Kimball 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 54% favorite over Jeremy Kimball in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1629), separated by just 5 points.

Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Kimball finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.