Jeremy Stephens vs Joe Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record10-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamThe Arena
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541
If they win+24→ 1576
If they lose-24→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensJoe Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens67%
Joe Duarte 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 67% favorite over Joe Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1552), separated by just 1 points.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joe Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Joe Duarte 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.