Jeremy Stephens vs Joe Lauzon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record28-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamLauzon MMA
What's at stake
Joe Lauzon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1566
If they lose-9→ 1542
If they win+9→ 1658
If they lose-15→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensJoe Lauzon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Lauzon63%
Jeremy Stephens 37%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Lauzon a 63% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Joe Lauzon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1551, a 98-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Joe Lauzon 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.