Jeremy Stephens vs Justin Buchholz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamIndependent
What's at stake
Jeremy Stephens is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Justin Buchholz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1562
If they lose-13→ 1538
If they win+13→ 1545
If they lose-11→ 1521
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens56%
Justin Buchholz 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 56% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Jeremy Stephens holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1551 to 1532, a 19-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Justin Buchholz 93%.
Jeremy Stephens and Justin Buchholz share 1 common opponent: Clay Collard.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.