Jeremy Stephens vs Marcus Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record23-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Marcus Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1568
If they lose-9→ 1544
If they win+9→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensMarcus Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens57%
Marcus Davis 43%Elo baseline: 36%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 57% favorite over Marcus Davis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcus Davis's way (36%).
Marcus Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1656 to 1553, a 103-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Davis 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.