Jeremy Stephens vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1571
If they lose-4→ 1547
If they win+4→ 1834
If they lose-20→ 1810
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway92%
Jeremy Stephens 8%Elo baseline: 83%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 92% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1551, a 279-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Jeremy Stephens and Max Holloway share 2 common opponents: Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez.
Jeremy Stephens carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.