Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Nick Gonzalez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record20-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamVasquez Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Nick GonzalezNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
1.11
Takedown avg.
TBD
38%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.37
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensNick Gonzalez
15502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
2 (7%)
Submission
3 (15%)
8 (28%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremy Stephens52%
Nick Gonzalez 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 52% favorite over Nick Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1551), separated by just 0 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nick Gonzalez 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.