Jeremy Stephens vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record34-10-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight135 lbs
Alliance MMATeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Renan Barão is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1565
If they lose-10→ 1541
If they win+14→ 1612
If they lose-18→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Barão60%
Jeremy Stephens 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Barão a 60% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Renan Barão holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1598 to 1551, a 47-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.