Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Shamar Bailey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamSparta Indy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Shamar BaileyNow 1550
If they win+12→ 1562
If they lose-12→ 1538

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
1.56
41%
Strike accuracy
20%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.91
59%
Strike defense
70%
1.11
Takedown avg.
1.50
38%
Takedown accuracy
33%
62%
Takedown defense
38%
0.37
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensShamar Bailey
15501600201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
5 (33%)
2 (7%)
Submission
3 (20%)
8 (28%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremy Stephens59%
Shamar Bailey 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 59% favorite over Shamar Bailey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1550), separated by just 1 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Shamar Bailey 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.