Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Yair Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record20-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Alliance MMATeamValle Flow Striking

What's at stake

Yair Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+18→ 1569
If they lose-6→ 1545
Yair RodriguezNow 1751
If they win+8→ 1759
If they lose-24→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
4.65
41%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.99
59%
Strike defense
52%
1.11
Takedown avg.
0.69
38%
Takedown accuracy
27%
62%
Takedown defense
58%
0.37
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensYair Rodriguez
160017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
2 (7%)
Submission
5 (25%)
8 (28%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Yair Rodriguez88%
Jeremy Stephens 12%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Yair Rodriguez a 88% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Yair Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1551, a 200-point edge.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.