Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Umphries vs Stephen Costello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReach-
159 lbsWeight171 lbs
PKGTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy UmphriesNow 1534
If they win+24→ 1558
If they lose-24→ 1510
Stephen CostelloNow 1536
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jeremy UmphriesStephen Costello
150015501600200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
3 (60%)
Submission
2 (33%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Costello53%
Jeremy Umphries 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 53% favorite over Jeremy Umphries in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1534 vs 1536), separated by just 2 points.

Jeremy Umphries finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Costello 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.