Jesse Butler vs Ryuho Miyaguchi
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ryuho Miyaguchi53%
Jesse Butler 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryuho Miyaguchi a 53% favorite over Jesse Butler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1596), separated by just 1 points.
Jesse Butler enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryuho Miyaguchi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jesse Butler finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryuho Miyaguchi 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record7-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'10"
40,0"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fortis MMATeamCobra Kai MMA Dojo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse ButlerRyuho Miyaguchi