Jesse Forbes vs Matt Hamill
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record13-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
184 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Jesse Forbes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matt Hamill carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1659
If they lose-20→ 1627
If they win+20→ 1574
If they lose-12→ 1542
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse ForbesMatt Hamill
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Forbes54%
Matt Hamill 46%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Forbes a 54% favorite over Matt Hamill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jesse Forbes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1554, a 93-point edge.
Jesse Forbes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Hamill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jesse Forbes finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hamill 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.