Jesse Forbes vs Ryan Jensen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
184 lbsWeight175 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Jesse Forbes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ryan Jensen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1660
If they lose-19→ 1628
If they win+19→ 1605
If they lose-13→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse ForbesRyan Jensen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Forbes76%
Ryan Jensen 24%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Forbes a 76% favorite over Ryan Jensen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Jesse Forbes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1586, a 61-point edge.
Jesse Forbes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jesse Forbes finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Jensen 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.