Jesse Fujarczyk vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
225 lbsWeight246 lbs
TeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1511
If they lose-24→ 1463
If they win+12→ 1503
If they lose-12→ 1479
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse FujarczykRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai67%
Jesse Fujarczyk 33%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 67% favorite over Jesse Fujarczyk in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1487 vs 1491), separated by just 4 points.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.