Jesse Gillespie vs Paulo Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record0-3-0
TBDDivisionTBD
TBDHeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
TBDWeightTBD
Team
What's at stake
Jesse Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Paulo Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1513
If they lose-26→ 1465
If they win+26→ 1492
If they lose-22→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse GillespiePaulo Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Gillespie57%
Paulo Santos 43%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Gillespie a 57% favorite over Paulo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jesse Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1491 to 1466, a 25-point edge.
Paulo Santos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jesse Gillespie finishes 33% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.