Jesse Moreng vs Vicente Vargas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record24-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MorengVicente Vargas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Vargas60%
Jesse Moreng 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Vargas a 60% favorite over Jesse Moreng in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jesse Moreng's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1645 vs 1644), separated by just 1 points.
Jesse Moreng finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.