Jesse Murray vs Joao Victor Zaiden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record10-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"HeightTBD
78"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540
If they win+16→ 1564
If they lose-16→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayJoao Victor Zaiden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Murray52%
Joao Victor Zaiden 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Murray a 52% favorite over Joao Victor Zaiden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1556 vs 1548), separated by just 8 points.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Joao Victor Zaiden 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.