Jesse Murray vs Junior Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record7-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach75"
206 lbsWeight249 lbs
Strongstyle MMATeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayJunior Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior Tafa52%
Jesse Murray 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior Tafa a 52% favorite over Jesse Murray in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1550 vs 1560), separated by just 10 points.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Junior Tafa 100%.
Jesse Murray carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.