Jesse Murray vs Mike Van Arsdale
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record8-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
78"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
Strongstyle MMATeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayMike Van Arsdale
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mike Van Arsdale57%
Jesse Murray 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mike Van Arsdale a 57% favorite over Jesse Murray in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1557 vs 1560), separated by just 3 points.
Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Mike Van Arsdale 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.