Jesse Murray vs Thiago Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record21-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
78"Reach74"
206 lbsWeight223 lbs
Strongstyle MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
If they win+12→ 1572
If they lose-12→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayThiago Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Murray56%
Thiago Silva 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Murray a 56% favorite over Thiago Silva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Silva's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1557 vs 1560), separated by just 3 points.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Silva 76%.
Jesse Murray carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.