Jesse Murray vs Vinny Magalhaes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record19-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
Strongstyle MMATeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayVinny Magalhaes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Murray53%
Vinny Magalhaes 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Murray a 53% favorite over Vinny Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Vinny Magalhaes's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1550 vs 1556), separated by just 6 points.
Vinny Magalhaes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Vinny Magalhaes 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.