Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesse Strader vs Rafael Rebello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
70"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Kemo's Fight FactoryTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jesse StraderNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Rafael RebelloNow 1577
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.03
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
52%
Strike accuracy
33%
5.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.29
47%
Strike defense
58%
3.87
Takedown avg.
2.82
57%
Takedown accuracy
33%
100%
Takedown defense
75%
0
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Jesse StraderRafael Rebello
1550160020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (71%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
1 (14%)
Submission
6 (67%)
1 (14%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jesse Strader and Rafael Rebello within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1577), separated by just 1 points.

Rafael Rebello enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jesse Strader finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Rebello 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.