Combat Edge Intelligence

Jessica Eye vs Sara McMann

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-11-0Record14-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'5"
66"Reach66"
126 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Sara McMann is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jessica Eye carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jessica EyeNow 1586
If they win+17→ 1603
If they lose-15→ 1571
Sara McMannNow 1614
If they win+15→ 1629
If they lose-17→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
2.26
37%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.92
56%
Strike defense
48%
0.58
Takedown avg.
4.38
41%
Takedown accuracy
65%
57%
Takedown defense
50%
0.45
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Jessica EyeSara McMann
160016502020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
1 (7%)
Submission
5 (36%)
11 (73%)
Decision
8 (57%)

Combat Edge model read

Sara McMann56%
Jessica Eye 44%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Sara McMann a 56% favorite over Jessica Eye in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Sara McMann holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1586, a 28-point edge.

Jessica Eye enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jessica Eye finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Sara McMann 43%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.