Jessie Rosas vs Mateo Alejandro Vogel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
MMA LabTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1652
If they lose-24→ 1604
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1487 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jessie RosasMateo Alejandro Vogel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jessie Rosas60%
Mateo Alejandro Vogel 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jessie Rosas a 60% favorite over Mateo Alejandro Vogel in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateo Alejandro Vogel's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1629), separated by just 1 points.
Jessie Rosas enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jessie Rosas finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mateo Alejandro Vogel 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.