Jesus Aguilar vs Keito Yamakita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record12-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'1"
62"Reach65"
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight Club· avg 1672 EloTeamReversal Gym Shinjuku Me, We· avg 1636 Elo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1704
If they lose-16→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesus AguilarKeito Yamakita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keito Yamakita60%
Jesus Aguilar 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Keito Yamakita a 60% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1688), separated by just 3 points.
Keito Yamakita enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Keito Yamakita 42%.
Keito Yamakita carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.