Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonça

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
62"ReachTBD
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima

What's at stake

Jesus Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mateus Mendonça carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+15→ 1700
If they lose-17→ 1668
Mateus MendonçaNow 1656
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
1.66
38%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
61%
Strike defense
30%
1.52
Takedown avg.
2.54
30%
Takedown accuracy
27%
45%
Takedown defense
56%
1.14
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarMateus Mendonça
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
7 (58%)
Submission
5 (45%)
4 (33%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Jesus Aguilar60%
Mateus Mendonça 40%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 60% favorite over Mateus Mendonça in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Jesus Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1656, a 29-point edge.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mateus Mendonça 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.