Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record14-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'8"
62"Reach69"
128 lbsWeight128 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jesus Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+18→ 1703
If they lose-14→ 1671
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+14→ 1739
If they lose-18→ 1707

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
38%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
61%
Strike defense
47%
1.52
Takedown avg.
6.01
30%
Takedown accuracy
39%
45%
Takedown defense
67%
1.14
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarRafael Estevam
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
7 (58%)
Submission
3 (21%)
4 (33%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Estevam61%
Jesus Aguilar 39%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Estevam a 61% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1685, a 40-point edge.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Rafael Estevam carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.