Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Steve Erceg

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Steve Erceg
au

Steve Erceg

“Astro Boy”

14-5-0FlyweightUFC

1687Good

Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'8"
62"Reach 68"
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamWilkes Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Steve ErcegNow 1687
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
4.64
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.07
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.52
Takedown avg.
1.13
30%
Takedown accuracy
28%
45%
Takedown defense
67%
1.14
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarSteve Erceg
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
7 (58%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (33%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Steve Erceg53%
Jesus Aguilar 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 53% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1687), separated by just 2 points.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.

Steve Erceg carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.