Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Tatsuro Taira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'7"
62"Reach70"
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamThe Blackbelt Japan

What's at stake

Tatsuro Taira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jesus Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+21→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1674
Tatsuro TairaNow 1790
If they win+11→ 1801
If they lose-21→ 1769

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
38%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
61%
Strike defense
47%
1.52
Takedown avg.
3.12
30%
Takedown accuracy
47%
45%
Takedown defense
45%
1.14
Submission avg.
1.56

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarTatsuro Taira
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
6 (33%)
7 (58%)
Submission
8 (44%)
4 (33%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Tatsuro Taira81%
Jesus Aguilar 19%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuro Taira a 81% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Tatsuro Taira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1685, a 105-point edge.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuro Taira 78%.

Tatsuro Taira carries a 8-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.