Jesus Aguilar vs Tatsuro Taira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'7"
62"Reach70"
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1675 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Tatsuro Taira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jesus Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1707
If they lose-11→ 1675
If they win+11→ 1802
If they lose-21→ 1770
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesus AguilarTatsuro Taira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatsuro Taira83%
Jesus Aguilar 17%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuro Taira a 83% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Tatsuro Taira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1686, a 105-point edge.
Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuro Taira 78%.
Tatsuro Taira carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.