Jesus Gutierrez vs Vadim Ogar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record10-8-0
FlyweightDivisionWelterweight
5'5"Height5'9"
-Reach-
125 lbsWeight157 lbs
Bonebreakers MMA· 1629 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe· 1645 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Vadim Ogar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jesus Gutierrez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1506
If they lose-14→ 1474
If they win+14→ 1535
If they lose-18→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesus GutierrezVadim Ogar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vadim Ogar73%
Jesus Gutierrez 27%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Vadim Ogar a 73% favorite over Jesus Gutierrez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Vadim Ogar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1488, a 33-point edge.
Jesus Gutierrez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Vadim Ogar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jesus Gutierrez finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Vadim Ogar 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.