Combat Edge Intelligence

Jhonata Diniz vs Karl Williams

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach79"
255 lbsWeight247 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Jhonata Diniz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Karl Williams carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jhonata DinizNow 1672
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-19→ 1653
Karl WilliamsNow 1600
If they win+19→ 1619
If they lose-13→ 1587

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
56%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.15
57%
Strike defense
56%
0
Takedown avg.
4.20
TBD
Takedown accuracy
49%
70%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Jhonata DinizKarl Williams
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (22%)
Decision
7 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Jhonata Diniz63%
Karl Williams 37%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 63% favorite over Karl Williams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Jhonata Diniz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1600, a 72-point edge.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Karl Williams 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.