Combat Edge Intelligence

Jhonata Diniz vs Marcin Tybura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record27-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach78"
255 lbsWeight247 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamAnkos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jhonata Diniz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jhonata DinizNow 1672
If they win+18→ 1690
If they lose-14→ 1658
Marcin TyburaNow 1708
If they win+11→ 1719
If they lose-13→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1711 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
56%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.26
57%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
1.30
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
70%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0.11

Trajectory

Jhonata DinizMarcin Tybura
16001650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
10 (37%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (26%)
2 (22%)
Decision
10 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcin Tybura52%
Jhonata Diniz 48%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 52% favorite over Jhonata Diniz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1672, a 36-point edge.

Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Tybura 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.