Jhonata Diniz vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"Reach75"
255 lbsWeight262 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jhonata DinizMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jhonata Diniz53%
Marcos Rogerio de Lima 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 53% favorite over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Rogerio de Lima's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1672), separated by just 3 points.
Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.
Jhonata Diniz carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.